I've noticed the comments on my post about Guilherme Marchi and how bulls are marked with him aboard. I've also received an email or two on the subject, so let me offer some clarification, and answer the question I asked in the original post.
The data I use includes events which aren't BFTS events, so when I look at Marchi's career numbers, I am looking at all of them, including lower level PBR events. In Marchi's case, most of his career outs are at BFTS events, though.
When I chose 40 of his peers, I chose guys who have a similar number of career outs, and have spent a good deal of time on the BFTS (in more than one season). In one respect, Bud is correct – Marchi has no peers in the world of bull riding, in that he is the most consistent bull rider to have ridden anywhere in the past 5 and a half years that I have records of. But for the sake of comparison, I chose guys he competes against who have a similar amount of experience. The group of guys I used have between 247 and 574 career outs. As a whole, they average 354 career outs, which is the actual number of career outs for Marchi. The fact that Marchi's riding percentage is twice that of some BFTS riders almost certainly contributes to the way bulls are marked with him. Bulls tend to get higher marks on buckoffs than on qualified rides (or bulls that receive high marks tend to buck guys off a lot, take your pick...).
In the original post, I asked which three riders are best in terms of how often bulls are marked more with them than they are with others. Some of you came close with your answers. The three guys who are best at getting better scores from bulls are: Chris Shivers (77%), Mike White (71%) and Brian Herman (71%). Among the 40 riders I studied, the obvious trend was that bulls tend to be marked better with smaller guys. Whether this is because the bull actually bucks better with the small guys or the bull just looks better, is up to you to decide. I just looked up Renato Nunes, who wasn't included in the 40 because he was just outside the range of career outs I was looking for (212). Bulls are marked higher with Renato 65% of the time, and he is a smaller and lighter guy, so that is about what I would expect to see.
Another variable which is impossible to measure, but surely has some bearing on how hard the bull appears to be bucking, is the rider's style of riding. Guys who have a gritty, get it done style like Marchi, Clayton Williams, etc. may not make their bulls look as good as guys who have a busy yet precise and pretty style like Shivers. McBride is at 65% by the same measure, and he may be the only one who really does make bulls look too easy, yet his style is clean and pretty too.
Now another thing I guess I failed to mention is what I think about the whole thing. I'm not used to that one... People ask me about facts all the time, but seldom ask for my opinion. Personally I don't believe that Marchi is being shortchanged by the judges, and I don't think that South Americans are being shortchanged in general. I think that we have seen a lot of guys come out of Brazil that have similar riding styles and are similar in size – Moraes, Crimber, Marchi, and even Caminhas to some extent, even though he's shorter. Nunes and Palermo are smaller and lighter guys and have slightly different styles, and their bull scores are on par with similar sized North Americans who have similar styles. I was in San Antonio and thought that the Judges did a great job. That was a very difficult event to judge, as all the pen of bulls was as even as a pen gets. Marchi's ride in the short round there was exciting, to be sure, but it was marked accurately too. His bull was slightly weaker than the other bulls that were ridden in the short go, and it wasn't an illusion. Plus, he had to make a fantastic recovery just to stay on, and therefore his ride markings probably weren't as good.
I thought March made a brilliant recovery in San Antonio, he fell to the side and adjusted and right back into place. Not like McBride hanging off the side of the bull for 4 seconds ,which I thought, he should not of gotten the Championship.
"Marchi's ride in the short round there was exciting, to be sure, but it was marked accurately too. His bull was slightly weaker than the other bulls that were ridden in the short go, and it wasn't an illusion. Plus, he had to make a fantastic recovery just to stay on, and therefore his ride markings probably weren't as good."
But, aren't some rides scored higher when there is a "fantastic recovery"? I think that's why the fans booed so loudly. Most other riders would have hit the ground BEFORE the whistle!
I get what you're saying now, but I still feel that there is a bit of a bias and it's not against anyone in particular, but rather "for" some riders who are known to be "friends" with some of the judges. That being said, the favoritism seems to change from time-to-time so maybe I'm just imagining it!
The judges also seem to prefer bulls that spin rather than bulls that buck. Case in point, last year it seemed that the judges were favoring Mike Lee. He got really high scores on spinning bulls, but then Justin started riding well it seemed that his scores were inflated and Mike's scores were lower. At the beginning of this year, Travis Briscoe received highly inflated scores until he started bucking off everything in sight.
I'm sorry to say this but the judges seem more like the rider's parents than honest judges. And the Brazilians don't have any peers judging them--nor do the Australians, Mexicans, or Canadians!
I think we’re pretty much in agreement, but we all needed these numbers to see the truth. I’ve written to VS through Leah to try to get the commentators to talk more about the rider’s weights vs. the bulls performance—just like they talk about the inertial forces the larger riders have to overcome. As I said in the other thread, maybe weight classes are needed to keep it fair.
I have another thought. Ladies, it don’t take big strong men to ride bulls. I think there may be some women who will eventually make a mark in PBR history, and it ain’t going to be the ones built like Marchi or Adriano.
Mommas look out. Your baby girls may grow up to be a professional bull riders.
Bud
As for the women riders, the ones on top today are nowhere the ironwomen of days past. Most of today's women ride practice pen quality bulls and that is fact coming from several event producers.That's what they ask for ;and the top riders I have seen have not covered their bulls in regular (non WPRA) rodeos. Non of the women today can compare to the ones who retired over the past few years. But there is a great bronc rider out there and she is the only PRCA female bronc rider-Kaila Mussell.
Each rider and bull has it's own stats. That I'll agree on. As far as fairness in all areas of the judge on bull and/or rider, I'll always see more fairness in the bull score versus the rider score. And that's a fact. Just watch the little box in the upper left hand corner on Versus and see what they give out.
I've had the opportunity to meet some bull riders out of their usual element of an event ( at the airports they fly through) I've actually talked to an NFR rider out of California returning from the 2007 finals and we had quite a long conversation about the judges. He told me up front that it was a good ol' boys club and it'll just take time for changes. I wouldn't be surprised when some of the senior riders retire to be sitting in judges seats. There's nepotism almost everywhere now and there's some even in the PBR. I love the sport and the riders, the politics is another story line. I still stand firm in my belief and conviction, that Marchi isn't given his fair share of decent judging. There are some riders that can do no wrong and the bar shifts for others. Anyone remember the rider who was faulted in the chute for taking too much time to get the rope tightened and centered on the bull. How many times have you seen that happen on National television! They penalized him and threw him out of the chute! Same standards for all??????????????
ALL judges are former bull riders. There was an article in the PBR magazine about it last October? I think. They're specifically former riders because they can see things non-riders can't.
Also, the guy who got kicked out was Chad Denton I think and the PBR website had a story on it...I think it's in the "features archive" section.
But I'm with you on Guilherme. I think he's being a little robbed. But then again he's much farther ahead of anyone else than Mcbride ever was, so his own consistency is winning it for him.
Hope he stays healthy!!!!