Reading McKee's last post, I felt I ought to investigate whether or not bulls are really marked less with Marchi than they are with other guys. I'm sure statisticians everywhere love it when commentators say "I guarantee if we looked at all the stats...." Because if there's one thing statisticians do, it's look at all the stats.
In this case, we are really trying to answer a basic question... Are bulls marked less with Marchi? And depending on the answer, many other questions may be raised.
As to whether bulls are marked less with Marchi than with others, I submit that they are not. Marchi has been on 354 different bulls that I have record of, and I calculated the career average marking for each of those without Marchi aboard, and then with Marchi aboard. 54% of them were marked higher when Marchi was on them.
Is that the final answer? Well, no. McKee must be on to something, because he sure sees a lot of bull riding, and should know what's going on, so let's look further.
For the most part, Marchi has faced his 354 bulls at BFTS events, and that means that he is usually facing these bulls in the prime of their careers. So they really should be somewhat better with him, right? So what we need to do is compare Marchi to his peers, and see how these other guys are doing.
I ran the same numbers on 40 riders with similar careers, Marchi included, and found some interesting things. Turns out that bulls are better with almost all of them, as you might expect. And of these 40, Marchi is ranked 36th in percentage of his bulls which are better with him than they are with others. Who's worse? Wiley Petersen (53%), Cory Melton (46%), Clayton Williams (46%), and Beau Hill (43%). Marchi is most similar to Adriano Moraes (54%), and Austin Meier (54%). The average for all 40 guys is 60%
Now for your stats homework, the best three guys by this measure are at 77%, 71%, and 71%. Can you guess who they are? Hint: the guys at the bottom have several obvious things in common that are not true of the three guys at the top.
Just kidding. Nice job, Slade.
So JimmyBobJoeFrank you readd that little article too about sending those Killer Bee's back to whatever part of Mexico they are from!
My wife and I laughed our back-ends off over that one. Although it is also sad; one, because of someone who skipped Geography; and, two, and more importantly the sorry sentiment. Actually, with all the publicity they have been getting Yolanda and I have been waiting for a bit of ugliness to enter the picture.
From my standpoint - whatever raises the bar! When I was in competitive sports I always wanted to play someone who was better than me if not the best. It is the best way to improve focus and results.
Because of the Brazilians and Justin McBride being out I wondered if everyone hasn't stepped up their game and that is one of the factors in all the 90's. Everyone figures this could be their year since the champ won't be repeating.
Don Beavers
I had to laugh a little bit with the results out of Omaha given the recent discussion of judging etc. OK, 2 90 point rides and not very many qualified rides overall. HMM?
Did the pendulum just do its normal swigning? Did pressure from the fans cause a "look" at the judging and some adjustment? Did the Bulls just get tired of hearing all this publicity about all the rides and especially all the 90-pointers and decide to step it up? LOL
So now, let's see what happens next week?
Hope Joe is OK. With a few more tries Brendon Clark would be a good addition to the on air crew. Enjoyed his comments.
Cheers, Don Beavers
I forgot to ask this last week, but during the Namba broadcasts when Versus ran the Injuries Scroller it listed a camera man with want seemed like major injuries? How is the guy and what happened?
Thanks, Don
Anyone going to Billings should take the time to make the short trip out to Little Big Horn (About an hour). An interesting little museum. Seeing the small markers spread across the hills is an amazing sight.
If you have a basic understanding of tactics actually seeing the terrain really reinforces was a monumental blunder Custer committed.
There are also markers for where some of the soldiers killed their horses to try to form a barricade.
A couple of years ago work was also completed on a monument for the Indians who died there.
Little Big Horn is also a national cemetery.
Anyhow, it is a good side trip to add to your trip.
Don
So much for the bull's score, but what about Marchi's scores? Please show us your statistics on that! There's no "myth" that Marchi's scores are lower than other riders on the same bulls!
I can't remember which commentator said it, but someone in the booth stated that the "rag-doll" riders will always get 2-3 points more than Marchi for their "style."
Okay, Mr. Long thinks there are 40 riders with similar careers to Marchi. I don’t think so. Who has had the highest riding percentage three and a half years in a row and come in second for three years? Marchi. Where are his peers?
Let’s look at the riders who came in first those years. Adriano (another Brazilian) who has a similar statistic. Justin McBride has a whopping 66%.
Let’s look at the top riders this year.
Now Oliviera comes in with a typical number for Brazilians--48%.
Lostroh comes in at 59%, Snyder at 59%, Briscoe at 67%, Mouney at 57%, and Jenkins at 59%. I looked up Tony Mendes because he’s one of my favorites and he has a score of 56% and he just got bumped out of the top 45.
Marchi’s U.S. competition is consistently coming up with higher bull scores. Bull Contractors, if you don’t get the right riders on your bulls, they can’t win bull of the year.
But wait a minute. Who is riding when the bulls get those really high scores? Mr. Long calls himself a statistician, but I think he’s just a book keeper. He either can’t analyze his numbers statistically or he can’t articulate his statistical conclusions well. I think someone needs to do some multi-variant analysis. It might lead to some more objective judging. Just off the cuff, Mike White, Chris Shivers, and Justin McBride are among the ones with the highest scored bulls. Why? Well, they’re all small men. Now it has been known for over a century and a half that small men often make better cowboys because they’re not as hard on horses. It’s logical that the bulls will buck better with lighter boys on them. It’s also logical that they will buck better with no weight on them, except most stop bucking well when they throw off the rider. It has been acknowledged that it is difficult to score bulls when the rider doesn’t stay on very long.
So, the bigger boys have a disadvantage because the inertial forces are harder on them, but they may have an easier time because the bulls can’t buck as hard. Where do we find equity in this? Do we need to see weight classes?
As far as this season goes, I think for riding percent, you'd have to go back to 1997, when there were far fewer events, to find a season with any rider with comparable percentage (actual numbers being a different story). Adriano was riding 80+% of his bulls that season until he broke his leg pretty late in the season and was unable to compete in the Finals--opening the door for Michael Gaffney to win the Gold Buckle.
The "Favoritism Finder" on Probullstats does show that it's fairly consistent for bulls to just have "off" days, no matter who is riding them--disproving certain people's belief that it's the Brazilians that cheat their bulls on a consistent basis. And it also disproves the theory that certain riders' scores are padded--at least on the BULL side.
As for whether or not Guilherme should have been scored higher on Buckeye this weekend, I don't believe so. His recovery when he was bucked off for all practical purposes was amazing, but that's not what they're supposed to be scored on. If he'd been in total control the entire 8 seconds, I think the score would have been 92+, with him being marked a point or two above the bull. But he wasn't, so the score was correct. Other times, I think he HAS been under-scored. I can't remember which bull it was in 06 (I think it was the last event before the Finals), but Ty Murray called it "The Greatest 88-point Ride in History"--and I think it was a previously unridden bull. In the same breath, though, I have to say that I've seen other top riders who finished their rides out of position similarly to Briscoe's last second on Grey Dog and be scored 3 points more than Briscoe, even though they were on the side of the bull for the last second or two, or when their bull faded the last 2 seconds of the ride and still be scored based on their "reputation" and/or the first 6 seconds of the ride.
I do have to give kudos to McBride for being a lot more humble than people accuse him of. Every time I hear anyone comparing his dream season last year (and it was a great season), when he's in the booth he is quick to reply that he's NEVER had a season that even comes close to Guilherme's this year.
I think it would be good to split the arguments up. There is the issue of the fact that small men have a statictically provable advantage when it comes to bull scores, and if the PBR judges should compensate for the discrepency. Then there is those magic numbers that come up for some riders at just the right (wrong) time.
Bud